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自动驾驶:人性终会克服技术的不确定性

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年02月16日 14:30:55
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(原)(标)(题)(:自)(动)(驾)(驶)(:人)(性)(终)(会)(克)(服)(技)(术)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(
(图)(片)(提)(供)(:全)(景)(视)(觉)()
经)(济)(观)(察)(报)(刘)(远)(举)(/文)(美)(国)(时)(间)(周)(日)(晚)(上)(10点)(左)(右)(,Uber的)(一)(辆)(无)(人)(驾)(驶)(汽)(车)(发)(生)(交)(通)(事)(故)(,与)(一)(名)(正)(在)(过)(马)(路)(的)(行)(人)(相)(撞)(,行)(人)(在)(送)(往)(医)(院)(后)(不)(治)(身)(亡)(,成)(为)(史)(上)(首)(例)(无)(人)(驾)(驶)(车)(辆)(在)(公)(开)(路)(面)(撞)(伤)(行)(人)(致)(死)(的)(案)(例)(。
就)(事)(故)(本)(身)(而)(言)(,这)(更)(像)(人)(的)(过)(错)(,并)(不)(能)(证)(明)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(,就)(注)(定)(比)(人)(类)(差)(。当)(地)(警)(察)(方)(对)(媒)(体)(表)(示)(:“事)(实)(非)(常)(清)(楚)(的)(是)(,根)(据)(受)(害)(人)(横)(穿)(马)(路)(的)(方)(式)(,无)(论)(是)(有)(人)(还)(是)(无)(人)(驾)(驶)(模)(式)(,要)(避)(免)(这)(起)(交)(通)(事)(故)(是)(极)(其)(困)(难)(的)(。”由)(此)(不)(难)(判)(断)(,在)(这)(起)(事)(件)(中)(,即)(使)(依)(靠)(人)(工)(驾)(驶)(,恐)(怕)(也)(无)(法)(躲)(避)(这)(次)(事)(故)(。
不)(过)(,此)(次)(事)(故)(还)(是)(引)(来)(了)(舆)(论)(的)(诸)(多)(忧)(虑)(、质)(疑)(,进)(而)(引)(发)(业)(内)(人)(士)(担)(忧)(,担)(心)(此)(次)(事)(件)(会)(打)(击)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(的)(发)(展)(。
但)(我)(认)(为)(,这)(些)(担)(心)(都)(是)(杞)(人)(忧)(天)(。人)(类)(对)(新)(事)(物)(持)(怀)(疑)(态)(度)(是)(人)(性)(的)(常)(态)(。这)(种)(进)(化)(长)(河)(中)(积)(累)(下)(来)(的)(本)(能)(,帮)(助)(人)(类)(趋)(利)(避)(害)(。事)(实)(上)(,就)(在)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(撞)(死)(人)(这)(则)(新)(闻)(轰)(动)(全)(球)(的)(同)(一)(天)(,世)(界)(上)(有)(3000多)(人)(死)(于)(人)(驾)(驶)(的)(汽)(车)(车)(祸)(。数)(据)(说)(明)(,舆)(论)(对)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(这)(样)(的)(新)(事)(物)(显)(然)(是)(苛)(刻)(的)(。但)(苛)(刻)(之)(下)(,事)(实)(被)(放)(大)(,事)(实)(背)(后)(的)(真)(相)(反)(而)(无)(人)(关)(心)(。
所)(谓)(真)(相)(就)(是)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(,是)(否)(更)(安)(全)(,需)(要)(与)(人)(类)(驾)(驶)(做)(统)(计)(对)(比)(。只)(要)(在)(统)(计)(上)(安)(全)(性)(高)(于)(人)(,就)(是)(对)(交)(通)(安)(全)(整)(体)(上)(的)(提)(升)(。一)(起)(个)(案)(,并)(不)(能)(证)(明)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(更)(不)(安)(全)(。
当)(然)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(本)(身)(,也)(需)(要)(技)(术)(升)(级)(,还)(面)(临)(着)(更)(大)(的)(挑)(战)(。某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(,这)(只)(是)(一)(个)(开)(始)(。在)(特)(定)(领)(域)(,人)(工)(智)(能)(或)(许)(能)(超)(过)(人)(类)(,但)(在)(开)(放)(、复)(杂)(的)(道)(路)(环)(境)(下)(,汽)(车)(的)(识)(别)(技)(术)(,仍)(然)(存)(在)(技)(术)(障)(碍)(需)(要)(解)(决)(。
现)(实)(路)(况)(非)(常)(复)(杂)(,有)(飞)(奔)(过)(来)(的)(孩)(子)(,有)(矮)(到)(人)(都)(很)(难)(发)(觉)(的)(小)(猫)(小)(狗)(,或)(者)(仅)(仅)(是)(空)(中)(飞)(过)(来)(几)(片)(树)(叶)(或)(者)(纸)(屑)(。面)(对)(这)(些)(情)(况)(,人)(类)(会)(使)(用)(很)(多)(外)(部)(环)(境)(信)(息)(来)(进)(行)(判)(断)(,比)(如)(,人)(可)(以)(根)(据)(一)(辆)(车)(的)(轨)(迹)(变)(化)(,判)(断)(它)(会)(不)(会)(成)(为)(自)(己)(的)(障)(碍)(物)(;再)(比)(如)(,人)(可)(以)(轻)(易)(识)(别)(一)(条)(狗)(与)(穿)(得)(像)(狗)(的)(人)(,或)(者)(识)(别)(有)(污)(迹)(的)(路)(牌)(,但)(这)(些)(对)(电)(脑)(来)(说)(,仍)(然)(非)(常)(困)(难)(。
更)(复)(杂)(的)(是)(,一)(个)(司)(机)(很)(容)(易)(判)(别)(一)(个)(行)(人)(的)(肢)(体)(语)(言)(,进)(而)(判)(断)(他)(的)(意)(图)(,然)(后)(选)(择)(踩)(刹)(车)(或)(者)(加)(速)(通)(过)(,这)(种)(人)(类)(模)(式)(的)(驾)(驶)(,对)(电)(脑)(来)(说)(,就)(目)(前)(来)(说)(还)(非)(常)(难)(。
不)(过)(,这)(些)(问)(题)(,会)(随)(着)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(的)(发)(展)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(车)(辆)(更)(多)(地)(出)(现)(在)(真)(实)(路)(面)(时)(,被)(逐)(渐)(发)(现)(。所)(以)(,与)(这)(一)(次)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(并)(无)(过)(错)(相)(比)(,更)(多)(的)(真)(问)(题)(还)(有)(待)(发)(现)(,更)(大)(的)(挑)(战)(还)(在)(后)(面)(。
目)(前)(的)(神)(经)(系)(统)(网)(络)(、深)(度)(学)(习)(,可)(以)(自)(行)(完)(成)(物)(体)(分)(类)(,但)(这)(其)(中)(包)(含)(了)(复)(杂)(的)(数)(学)(计)(算)(,这)(也)(意)(味)(着)(,人)(类)(不)(能)(直)(接)(把)(神)(经)(网)(络)(拆)(分)(后)(,理)(解)(决)(策)(过)(程)(。
简)(单)(地)(说)(,电)(脑)(做)(出)(的)(选)(择)(,以)(及)(为)(什)(么)(做)(出)(这)(样)(的)(选)(择)(,已)(经)(超)(过)(人)(类)(的)(理)(解)(范)(围)(之)(外)(。即)(便)(在)(理)(论)(上)(没)(有)(超)(过)(人)(类)(的)(理)(解)(力)(,但)(在)(现)(实)(中)(,却)(因)(为)(成)(本)(巨)(大)(,不)(可)(实)(现)(。比)(如)(,阿)(尔)(法)(狗)(下)(一)(盘)(棋)(,只)(需)(要)(3个)(小)(时)(,但)(理)(解)(它)(为)(什)(么)(这)(么)(下)(,可)(能)(需)(要)(三)(十)(年)(。这)(就)(使)(得)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(系)(统)(导)(致)(事)(故)(后)(,也)(是)(无)(法)(解)(释)(的)(。当)(机)(器)(学)(习)(被)(广)(泛)(使)(用)(后)(,了)(解)(这)(些)(系)(统)(如)(何)(工)(作)(也)(变)(得)(异)(常)(困)(难)(。这)(种)(不)(透)(明)(感)(,以)(及)(由)(不)(透)(明)(感)(导)(致)(的)(不)(安)(全)(感)(,或)(许)(是)(人)(工)(智)(能)(时)(代)(,人)(类)(必)(须)(接)(受)(的)(一)(种)(状)(态)(。
安)(全)(第)(一)(,从)(来)(只)(是)(人)(类)(的)(一)(种)(幻)(觉)(。可)(以)(毫)(不)(夸)(张)(地)(说)(,安)(全)(,在)(人)(类)(文)(明)(发)(展)(过)(程)(中)(的)(大)(多)(数)(场)(景)(中)(,都)(不)(是)(第)(一)(位)(的)(。不)(然)(,无)(法)(解)(释)(远)(比)(安)(坐)(家)(中)(风)(险)(更)(高)(的)(飞)(机)(、汽)(车)(能)(够)(成)(为)(人)(类)(生)(活)(的)(日)(常)(,也)(无)(法)(解)(释)(横)(穿)(于)(马)(路)(中)(的)(带)(着)(孩)(子)(的)(电)(瓶)(车)(,更)(不)(能)(解)(释)(战)(争)(。
所)(以)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(带)(给)(人)(类)(的)(利)(益)(,大)(于)(人)(类)(对)(其)(风)(险)(的)(主)(观)(感)(知)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(一)(定)(会)(普)(及)(。
一)(方)(面)(,随)(着)(不)(断)(普)(及)(,人)(类)(主)(观)(会)(从)(不)(信)(任)(,变)(为)(过)(度)(信)(任)(,甚)(至)(低)(估)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(的)(风)(险)(。就)(像)(youtube上)(那)(些)(视)(频)(中)(一)(些)(笃)(信)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(的)(人)(一)(样)(,他)(们)(并)(不)(听)(特)(斯)(拉)(发)(出)(的)(警)(告)(,把)(双)(手)(脱)(离)(方)(向)(盘)(,以)(测)(试)(、炫)(耀)(特)(斯)(拉)(的)(自)(动)(辅)(助)(驾)(驶)(功)(能)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,与)(风)(险)(对)(应)(的)(是)(,收)(益)(。此)(次)(车)(祸)(之)(后)(,有)(人)(质)(疑)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(,说)(“我)(们)(真)(需)(要)(那)(么)(多)(时)(间)(在)(方)(向)(盘)(后)(面)(发)(短)(信)(吗)(?”我)(想)(,对)(于)(很)(多)(人)(来)(说)(,答)(案)(都)(应)(该)(是)(:是)(的)(。因)(为)(渴)(望)(更)(多)(的)(休)(闲)(、交)(流)(、娱)(乐)(,是)(人)(的)(本)(能)(。
所)(以)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(,即)(便)(不)(能)(超)(越)(人)(类)(,只)(要)(在)(统)(计)(上)(不)(差)(于)(人)(类)(,自)(动)(驾)(驶)(技)(术)(带)(来)(的)(好)(处)(,终)(会)(克)(服)(此)(次)(事)(件)(中)(体)(现)(出)(现)(的)(人)(类)(的)(多)(疑)(,进)(而)(克)(服)(所)(有)(的)(伦)(理)(、立)(法)(问)(题)(。从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(,是)(人)(性)(帮)(助)(技)(术)(克)(服)(自)(身)(的)(缺)(陷)(。
这)(让)(我)(想)(起)(一)(个)(笑)(话)(,是)(懒)(人)(发)(明)(了)(诸)(多)(机)(器)(,让)(这)(个)(世)(界)(更)(美)(好)(。
(作)(者)(系)(上)(海)(金)(融)(与)(法)(律)(研)(究)(院)(研)(究)(员)()返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
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